A Good June For Canadian Home Sales Doesn't Erase The Trend, Says Rosenberg Research

09:23 AM EDT, 07/16/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Modestly good news for Canada's housing sector came in the existing home sales data, but all the year-over-year trendlines are still somewhat bad, and show the impact of the Bank of Canada's policy rate decisions, said Rosenberg Research.

Existing home unit sales rose 2.8% for the month and are now down just 0.5% year over year.

Dollar volumes of existing home sales rose 4.1% month over month in June, against 4.8% in May. However, volume is still down 1.9% year over year, the fifth straight month of negative year-over-year readings. From the cycle peak eight months ago, volumes are down by nearly 17%. Greater Toronto showed strength, up 6.8% month over month and Vancouver rose by 6.2% month over month.

The bottom line is that sales aren't yet growing fast enough to absorb excess supply, so Rosenberg still sees downward pressure on prices.

The number of new listings -- the key supply-side measure -- fell by 2.9% month over month, but is still up 4.4% year over year. That implies that inventory isn't moving quickly. The sales-to-listings ratio improved from 47.3% in May to 50.1% in June, but is still close to the historical average. No sign of excess demand here, stated Rosenberg.

Canada is up to 4.7 months of inventory on the market, up 11.9% year over year.

Confirming this supply-demand imbalance, the composite home price index is down 3.6% year over year and home prices for sales nationwide rose by 1.6% month over month and are down 1.6% year over year.

It will take several more months of sales data like this before Rosenberg is comfortable confirming a recovery for Canadian housing.

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