Canada's Home Sales Make Gains in June, Notes TD

10:11 AM EDT, 07/15/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian existing home sales advanced for a third consecutive month in June, increasing by 2.8% month-on-month, noted TD.

Gains in British Columbia (5.8% month over month) and Ontario (5.3% month over month) helped lift national sales, while activity dipped in Alberta, Manitoba, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland, noted the bank after the release of Tuesday's data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

In the existing home market, new listings fell by 2.9% month over month in June. With sales rising and new listings pulling back, the sales-to-new-listings ratio tightened a couple of percentage points to 50.1%. This moves housing markets into slightly more balanced territory, but the ratio remains below its long-term average, pointed out TD.

Average home prices advanced 1.5% month over month in June. Prices were up notably in B.C. (1.5% month over month) and Nova Scotia (1.7% month over month), and Saskatchewan and New Brunswick (+1.4%). Meanwhile, prices were up 0.7% month over month in Ontario, 0.8% month over month in Quebec and 0.4% Alberta.

The MLS home price index, a more "like for like" measure, continued to moderate, down 0.2% month over month, and lower by 3.7% on a year-on-year basis. Prices for detached units were down 0.1% month over month, while condo prices fell 0.7% month over month. Notably, a much weaker performance in the home price index than the average home price measure suggests a shift in the composition of sales is lifting prices -- in other words, more expensive housing sold relatively well last month, lifting average prices.

June's sales performance came in broadly as expected, with Canadian transactions continuing their gradual recovery from their early-year depths. TD expects home sales will continue to rise in the second half of the year as pent-up demand continues to trickle into the market.

That said, the sales level should remain subdued as economic uncertainty remains elevated, especially with Canada facing new tariff threats, added the bank.

Even with the expected sales gain, Canadian average home price growth should lag, given still loose supply/demand balances in the important markets of B.C. and Ontario, according to TD.

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