FOREX-Dollar holds near 3-week high before CPI; bitcoin eases back from record peak

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 07/14/25 11:04 PM EDT

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Traders watch U.S. inflation data for signs of tariff impact

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Fed has said CPI may rise in U.S. summer as it held off cutting rates

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Aussie dollar, yuan shrug off resilient Chinese GDP figures

(Updates prices after China GDP release)

By Kevin Buckland

TOKYO, July 15 (Reuters) - The dollar hovered near a three-week high versus major peers on Tuesday as traders awaited the release of U.S. inflation data later in the day that could provide clues on the path for monetary policy.

The U.S. currency was also buoyed by elevated Treasury yields, with investors weighing a potential exit of Jerome Powell from the Federal Reserve as President Donald Trump continued his criticism of the central bank chairman.

Currencies showed little reaction to data showing China's economy grew 5.2% last quarter, slightly topping analysts' forecasts.

Bitcoin drifted further from Monday's all-time peak of $123,153.22 following a seven-day, 14% surge as investors bet on long-sought legislative policy wins for the cryptocurrency industry this week. It was changed hands at around $118,215 as of 0240 GMT.

The dollar was little changed at 147.68 yen, after earlier rising to the highest since June 23 at 147.89 yen.

The dollar index, which tracks the currency against the yen and five other major rivals, stood at 98.050, not far below the overnight peak of 98.136, the highest since June 25.

The euro edged up slightly to $1.1671 after slipping to $1.1650 on Monday for the first time since June 25.

Fed Chair Powell has said he expects inflation to increase this summer as a result of tariffs, which is seen keeping the U.S. central bank on hold until later in the year.

Economists polled by Reuters expect headline inflation to increase to 2.7% on an annual basis, up from 2.4% the prior month. Core inflation is expected to rise to 3.0%, from 2.8%.

"Should inflation fail to materialise or remain steady, questions may arise regarding the Fed's recent decision not to cut rates, potentially intensifying calls for monetary easing," James Kniveton, senior corporate FX dealer at Convera, wrote in a client note.

"Calls from the White House for leadership changes at the Fed may increase."

Trump on Monday renewed his attacks on Powell, saying interest rates should be at 1% or lower, rather than the 4.25% to 4.50% range the Fed has kept the key rate at so far this year.

Fed funds futures traders have been pricing in 50 basis points of interest rate cuts by year-end, with the first reduction expected in September.

"If Powell leaves, we expect the (U.S. Treasury yield) curve to steepen sharply, with the short-end factoring in front-loaded rates cuts," DBS analysts wrote in a note.

"Meanwhile, the loss of confidence in price stability should translate into sharply higher 10-year and 30-year yields."

China's economic growth topped market forecasts in the second quarter - even as it slowed slightly from the prior three months - in a sign of resilience against U.S. tariffs.

At the same time, analysts warned of underlying weakness and rising risks that will ramp up pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus.

The Chinese yuan was flat at 7.1728 per dollar.

The Aussie was steady at $0.6546. (Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Sonali Paul and Lincoln Feast.)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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