RBC Previews This Week's CPI Data in Canada

09:31 AM EDT, 07/14/2025 (MT Newswires) -- RBC said it expects it's likely too early to see a significant increase in prices due to tariffs in Canadian and United States inflation data for June on Tuesday.

Statistics Canada will release the June consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday.

There have been signs of tariffs raising prices for some Canadian food products, and vehicle prices have been climbing steadily since March, noted the bank. However, the broader impact of tariffs on prices has been limited. Canadian retaliatory tariffs announced earlier this year were measured and targeted, and in many cases, have been paused to avoid raising costs for Canadian consumers and producers.

For June, RBC expects a slight increase in the CPI to an annual 1.9% following a lower-than-expected 1.7% reading in May.

Gasoline prices edged down 0.9% from May despite a 10% jump in oil prices due to conflict in the Middle East, and were still more than 10% lower than a year ago, reflecting the removal of the consumer carbon tax in April.

Food price inflation-which picked up earlier this year due to higher costs for groceries potentially related to Canadian retaliatory tariffs on imports from the U.S. and dining out-eased slightly in May on an annual basis. The bank predicts this softening to persist in June.

With tax changes significantly distorting annual price growth, the Bank of Canada's preferred core inflation metrics -- which exclude the impact of indirect tax changes -- will continue to be watched closely for signs of changes in underlying trends.

RBC expects month-over-month increases in the trim and median measures close to the 0.2% increases posted for both in May. That would leave annual rates little changed from May and still significantly above the BoC's 2% inflation target. Excluding food and energy, inflation is forecast to rise slightly to 2.7% from May's 2.6%.

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