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Scotiabank Previews Friday's Labor Market Report in Canada

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 07/10/25 11:43 AM EDT

11:43 AM EDT, 07/10/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada updates the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for June at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, noted Scotiabank.

The bank estimates a gain of 15,000 and an unchanged unemployment rate of 7%. It's hardly a high conviction call.

Seasonal adjustment factors are likely to bias the estimated change higher, all else equal, stated Scotiabank. May was a miserable month for spring weather and that may have been partly responsible for holding back categories like construction and hotel and food services, so weather effects might drive a rebound in June.

Small business hiring attitudes have improved somewhat of late, added the bank. The lost election jobs in May after the surge in April will shake out as an influence; excluding election jobs that aren't real jobs anyway, employment was up 41,000 in May against concerns of a tariff hit as services hiring carried the day, which could repeat.

As for the unemployment rate, timing the effects of tighter immigration policy on labor force expansion is difficult, but on a trend basis should be a moderating effect, according to Scotiabank.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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