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Builders FirstSource Facing Weaker Housing Backdrop, Competitive Pressures, Oppenheimer Says

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 07/10/25 11:13 AM EDT

11:13 AM EDT, 07/10/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Builders FirstSource (BLDR) is facing a weaker backdrop for single-family housing starts and a more challenging competitive environment for the rest of the year, Oppenheimer said in a note Thursday.

The brokerage said it sees 2025 as a transitional period for the company as it absorbs softer demand, continued margin normalization, and less capacity for acquisitions and share buybacks.

Oppenheimer noted that Builders FirstSource's (BLDR) revenue has historically shown a 92% correlation to single-family housing starts, which the firm expects to decline 9% in 2025. The company has deployed about $8 billion on acquisitions and buybacks since early 2022, reducing its share count by 36%, but capital deployment is likely to slow sharply in H2.

The firm now expects Builders FirstSource (BLDR) to post 2025 adjusted earnings of $7.44 per share and revenue of $15.87 billion, both below consensus estimates of $8.30 per share and $16.32 billion, respectively.

The note also cited negative investor sentiment, with many clients expecting a reduction in 2025 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance. However, some investors have become more constructive, anticipating that housing starts could be near a bottom.

Oppenheimer reiterated an outperform rating on the shares but lowered its price target to $155 from $165.

(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)

Price: 136.74, Change: +3.74, Percent Change: +2.81

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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