TSX Closer: The Index Edges Up to Another Record Close; BMO Expects a Drop in Q2 GDP

04:19 PM EDT, 07/04/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange posted its fourth-straight record close on Friday, sticking above the 27,000 mark for a second day but gains are slowing as it managed just a minor rise.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 1.9 points to 27,036.16, just topping Thursday's prior record close of 27,034.26. Telecoms and Utilities were up 0.37% and 0.20%, respectively, leading gains, while Information Technology and Battery Metals Index were at the bottom of the list.

Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in his weekly 'Talking Points' noted there was no shortage of key economic news and events packed into this holiday-shortened week. He said the most notable end result was that equity markets "kept right on keeping on", reflecting a broad rally.

"So broad, in fact, that the TSX has steamrolled above 27,000 for the first time, with almost an unbroken string of advances in the past three months; it has now risen in 11 of the past 13 weeks," Porter added. Globally, it's a broadly similar tale for the MSCI All Countries index, which is now up almost 7% year to date, also reaching a record high, he noted.

According to Porter, the three major drivers for markets this week were economic news, a new budget bill in the United States and trade developments, with the latter impacting Canada most. He noted Canada and Mexico were not included in the new U.S. reciprocal tariffs and are being handled separately. Talks with Canada were paused last week over its Digital Services Tax, but after Canada backed down, negotiations resumed. Both countries hope to reach a deal by July 21, though that date is self-imposed.

Porter said while Canada's economy has held up a bit better than BMO initially expected to the trade war, in part because the average U.S. tariff on Canada is a "manageable" 6%, he added "there are some signs of strain" as the deep merchandise trade deficit of $5.9 billion was the second largest on record, topped only by April's "whopping" $7.6 billion shortfall, and real exports were down 5% from last year's average level.

Porter said Canada's trade figures have been "wildly skewed" by tariff front-running that was followed by a "deep sag", but also by a surge in gold exports. Looking through the dense fog, he added, it's clear that net exports will sap second-quarter GDP, probably to a greater extent than the calm monthly output figures imply.

Along with a drop in oil production amid the spring wildfires, BMO downgraded its call on the quarter to -0.8% a.r., although it also expects less softness in the third quarter as a partial offset. "If Ottawa does indeed manage to secure even a trade framework this summer, which provides some clarity, we will be upgrading our H2 growth outlook. Less uncertainty, coupled with solid financial markets, and what's now looking like a bountiful fiscal push, could lift growth much higher than our current call of a small dip in Q3 and a 1% advance in Q4."

Of commodities, gold held steady Friday amid light electronic trade with U.S. markets closed for the Independence Day holiday. Gold for August delivery was last seen up $3.60 to US$3,346.50 per ounce. The price of the precious metal has remained rangebound since closing at a record $3,452.80 per ounce on June 13.

But West Texas Intermediate oil prices fell for a second day on increasing supply. WTI oil for August delivery was last seen down $0.50 to US$66.50 per barrel, while September Brent crude was down $0.50 to US$68.30.

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