CIBC's Week Ahead Market Call For Canada

01:45 PM EDT, 07/04/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Avery Shenfeld noted employment is the only major data release next week, on Friday, and CIBC is expecting a continuation of the recent trend, with lacklustre job gains and yet another uptick in the unemployment rate. Shenfeld said while a 4.1% jobless rate gives the U.S. Fed the luxury of waiting for full clarity on tariffs and their inflation impacts before easing again on rates, the "steady drumbeat" of higher unemployment in Canada makes an extended pause on rates much less easy for its central bank here to justify. But, he added, there's still one more CPI report before the next rate decision, and a potential trade deal with the U.S. that would moderate the existing tariffs, either of which could delay CIBC's projected 25 bp easing in July.

(Also on the CIBC calendar for next week are auctions of $6 billion in 2-Yr Canadas on Wednesday and $5.3 billion in 5-Yr Canadas on Thursday. June IVEY PMI is slated for release on Tuesday).

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