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TD Economics on Next Week's Jobs Report

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 07/04/25 11:52 AM EDT

11:52 AM EDT, 07/04/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The damage from fraying trade relations will continue unfolding, writes TD Economics in its Weekly Bottom Line note, adding that next week's jobs report will offer another perspective into how deep that damage runs.

So far, total employment has moved sideways rather than down, but under the surface, cracks are evident. Employment in trade-intensive sectors like manufacturing is down nearly 3% since January. Should this weakness spread, the Bank of Canada is likely to respond with two additional rate cuts before the end of the third quarter, TD notes.

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