Don't Bury The US Labor Market Just Yet: June Jobs Report Beats Every Forecast

The official U.S. jobs report for June delivered a surprisingly sharp turnaround from the gloom triggered by ADP private payroll data just 24 hours earlier.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, the strongest reading so far in 2025, up from an upwardly revised 144,000 in May and well above economists’ expectations of 110,000.

The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% from 4.2%, also beating forecasts for a rise to 4.3%. It marks the lowest unemployment rate since January 2025.

Government Hiring Leads The Way, Private Sector Growth Slows

The largest surprise came from government hiring, which contributed 73,000 new jobs?the highest since March 2024. State governments added 47,000 positions, mostly in education, while local government education continued to rise with a 23,000-job increase.

The federal government, however, shed 7,000 positions and remains 69,000 jobs below its January 2025 peak.

Private sector hiring was less impressive, with payrolls rising by 74,000?well below expectations of 105,000 and down from May's upwardly revised 134,000. Still, it avoided contraction and stood in contrast to the ADP report, which had shown a 33,000 decline.

Healthcare remained a steady driver, adding 39,000 jobs in June, close to its 12-month average.

Hospitals and nursing facilities added 16,000 and 14,000 jobs, respectively. Social assistance roles also grew by 19,000, led by individual and family services.

One sign of cooling came from wages. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% on the month, down from 0.4% in May and below the 0.3% expected. Year-over-year wage growth eased from 3.8% to 3.7%, undershooting the 3.9% forecast.

Also released Thursday, weekly unemployment claims fell to 233,000 for the week ending June 28, down 4,000 from the prior week and below the 240,000 expected. Continuing claims were slightly above forecasts at 1.694 million.

Market Reactions

The U.S. dollar jumped after June's stronger-than-expected jobs report, as traders dialed back bets on a July rate cut?just a day after those expectations surged on weak ADP data.

The U.S. dollar index rose 0.5%, while gold tumbled over 1% to 3,315 per ounce. Equity futures saw gains, with contracts on the S&P 500 up 0.2% to 6,285 points.

On Wednesday the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF closed at 570.29 points, setting new record highs.

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