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Texas Manufacturing Contraction Improves Less Than Expected, Dallas Fed Survey Shows

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 06/30/25 03:19 PM EDT

03:19 PM EDT, 06/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Texas manufacturing sector's contraction eased less than projected in June, while uncertainty grew amid shrinking demand, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas showed Monday.

The general business activity index improved to minus 12.7 this month from minus 15.3 in May. The consensus was for a minus 10 reading in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

The production index, which the Fed branch calls a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose to 1.3 from 0.9, with the "near-zero reading indicating a second month of flat output." The new orders index improved to minus 7.3 from minus 8.7, while the shipments index swung to minus 7.3 from 0.5.

"The Texas manufacturing sector exhibited no growth for a second month," Emily Kerr, senior business economist at the Dallas Fed, said in remarks e-mailed to MT Newswires. "Demand continued to decline and company outlooks worsened. Employment rose, however, and price pressures intensified further."

The uncertainty index climbed to 15.2 in June from 12.7 last month, while the company outlook measure improved to minus 8.9 from minus 11.3. The employment index advanced to 5.7 from 3.5.

Six months out, expectations for general business activity jumped to 14.4 this month from 1.3 in May, while the future production index declined to 22.6 from 31.1. The forward-looking indicator for new orders and shipments posted gains, the data showed

Wage and price growth projections eased in June, Kerr said. "Demand and geopolitical uncertainty were the top two outlook concerns cited by business executives, followed by domestic policy uncertainty and inflation."

Last week, Richmond Fed data showed that manufacturing contraction in the US Mid-Atlantic region unexpectedly improved this month as shipments and new orders rose but remained in negative territory.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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