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US Investors to Focus on Nonfarm Payrolls, Trade Deals, Budget Reconciliation Bill This Week

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 06/30/25 05:50 AM EDT

05:50 AM EDT, 06/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- US equity investors will focus on the jobs data in this holiday-shortened week, apart from keeping an eye on President Donald Trump's trade deals and the passage of his 'Big Beautiful Bill' tax-cut bill.

* Nonfarm payrolls and related labour market readings for June are due Thursday because of the July 4 holiday. The equity market will close at 1 pm ET on July 3.

* The data will be monitored closely as weakness in the job market would be supportive of a quicker interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Markets are pricing a 49% probability of three 25-basis-point interest-rate cuts by December, versus 36% a week ago, with policy easing most likely to restart in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The likelihood of two by the end of this year fell to 32% from 40% a week ago.

* Other labor market data due this week includes JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, ADP private payrolls numbers on Wednesday, and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.

* Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to deliver a speech on Tuesday.

* The US and China have agreed to formalize their May trade understanding from Geneva, moving toward a full tariff and trade pact. US tariffs on Chinese goods will begin at 30%, while China will impose 10% tariffs on US imports, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday. More announcements are due from several countries, including India and South Korea.

* Taiwan and the US have made "constructive progress" during their second round of negotiations in Washington, Business Times reported Sunday, citing Taiwan's Vice Premier Cheng Li-jun.

* Meanwhile, Trump does not plan on postponing a 90-day pause on tariffs he imposed on most countries beyond the July 9 expiration of his previous order, the Associated Press reported Sunday.

* Separately, Trump's budget reconciliation 'Big Beautiful Bill' cleared a key milestone Saturday when the US Senate voted 51-49 in favor to advance it for debate on the floor.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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