Scotiabank Previews Friday's GDP Data in Canada

08:02 AM EDT, 06/27/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada updates the gross domestic product figures for April and May at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday, which will provide a better sense of how the economy is tracking in Q2, said Scotiabank.

April was previously guided by Statistics Canada to be up by 0.1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted. The bank went with a flat monthly forecast.

Since StatsCan's initial estimate on May 30, the data flow has been softer than guided, which points to more downside than upside risk, stated Scotiabank. There is a greater likelihood of a negative print than a higher reading.

May's weather this year may have also dampened seasonal categories.

May GDP is uncertain, but several advance readings point to another soft month, pointed out the bank. Hours worked were flat, the prior surge in housing starts levelled off and limited other readings like the retail sales flash were soft. How all of these readings translate into value-added GDP concepts is unclear, but a simple regression tends to work reasonably well and suggests softness in both months.

What's missing from these readings are the ingredients for quarterly expenditure-based GDP, such as trade and inventory effects that are likely to reverse some of the prior quarter's contributions, added Scotiabank.

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