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BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 06/27/25 07:43 AM EDT

07:43 AM EDT, 06/27/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The April gross domestic product report at 8:30 a.m. ET is the key release in Canada on Friday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The bank noted that tariff uncertainty peaked in April, which likely weighed heavily on economic activity. Steel, aluminum and auto tariffs were in effect in the month and had a clear impact on international trade. There was a material pull-forward of activity ahead of the tariffs, also contributing to the sharp decline in April trade.

Accordingly, wholesale and manufacturing volumes slid, though retail sales scratched out a decent gain. Home sales were up slightly in the month, but not enough to move the needle, pointed out BMO.

Statistics Canada pegged the flash growth estimate at 0.1% month over month, with growth led by mining/oil/natural gas and the financial sector. The bank stated it's more cautious given the tariff backdrop and generally soft data flow for the month, anticipating a flat reading for GDP growth.

BMO will be watching the flash estimate for May particularly closely, as that will give it a read on whether Q2 will contract as the bank is forecasting.

The Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) is steady as well, starting Friday at $1.366/USD (73.2 US cents), adde the bank.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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