Weekly Jobless Claims Fall, Continuing Applications Hit Highest Since November 2021

11:47 AM EDT, 06/26/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Weekly applications for unemployment insurance in the US declined more than expected, while continuing claims reached their highest level since November 2021, government data showed Thursday.

The seasonally adjusted number of initial claims fell by 10,000 to 236,000 for the week ended June 21, according to the Department of Labor. The consensus was for a 243,000 reading in a Bloomberg poll. The previous week's reading was revised up by 1,000 to 246,000.

The four-week moving average totaled 245,000, down by 750 from the prior week's average that was revised upward by 250. Unadjusted claims dropped by 9,438 on a weekly basis to 227,080.

"The latest jobless claims data are consistent with softening of labor market conditions, particularly on the hiring side of the labor market equation," Oxford Economics Lead Economist Nancy Vanden Houten said in remarks emailed to MT Newswires. "Initial jobless claims slipped in the latest week, but layoff notices suggest we could see a pickup in job losses and initial claims in the weeks ahead."

Seasonally adjusted continuing claims totaled 1.97 million for the week ended June 14, its highest point since Nov. 6, 2021, topping Wall Street's views for a 1.95 million reading. Continuing claims jumped by 37,000 from the previous week's downwardly revised level. The four-week moving average grew by 16,750 to 1.94 million, representing its highest level since Nov. 20, 2021, according to the DOL.

"For now, we don't think the labor market is weak enough to prompt the (Federal Reserve) to cut rates before December, but the risk is increasing that once the Fed starts to lower rates, it will have some catching up to do and will start with a (50-basis-point) rate cut," according to Vanden Houten.

Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank can continue to wait and evaluate how the US economy responds to policy changes before it adjusts its monetary policy. The world's largest economy is in a "solid position" despite elevated uncertainty levels, while the unemployment rate remains low, Powell said Tuesday in prepared remarks to the House Committee on Financial Services.

The Federal Open Market Committee kept its benchmark lending rate unchanged last week for a fourth consecutive meeting. Markets are currently pricing in a 23% probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction next month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said Monday she would support lowering interest rates as soon as next month, provided that inflationary pressures remain "contained." Last week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller reportedly said the FOMC may be in a position to ease monetary policy "as early as July."

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.