Scotiabank Previews This Week's Policy Meetings at The Central Banks in Colombia, Mexico

11:49 AM EDT, 06/23/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Scotiabank said most economists expect Colombia's central bank (BanRep) to hold its overnight rate at 9.25% on Friday.

Scotiabank is in the minority that is expecting a 25bps cut. BanRep surprised consensus with a 25bps cut at its last decision on April 30 and emphasized "a cautious approach to monetary policy" and that "Future decisions will be determined based on the latest information available."

This data dependence has since been informed by mixed releases including Q1 gross domestic product that slightly disappointed expectations but after a sharp upward revision to Q4, and a pair of CPI readings that at first came in warmer than expected and then cooler than expected, leaving CPI at about where it was at the last decision, or 5.1% year over year.

Mexico's central bank (Banxico) is widely expected to cut its overnight rate by another 50bps on Thursday, stated Scotiabank. That would take the rate down by a cumulative 325bps since rate cuts started in March of last year.

Guidance provided in the last statement in May was that "looking ahead it could continue calibrating the monetary policy stance and consider adjusting it in similar magnitudes" of 50bps a clip. Complicating the outlook may be that headline inflation and core goods inflation have been rising of late, added the bank.

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