RBC Previews This Week's GPD Data in Canada

10:19 AM EDT, 06/23/2025 (MT Newswires) -- RBC said it expects Friday's Canadian gross domestic product data for April to show slowing growth following a jump in Q1 that was largely driven by front-running tariffs.

GDP is expected to have eked out a 0.1% month-over-month increase in April, matching Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate from a month ago, noted the bank. The trade-exposed manufacturing sector softened with sales falling sharply in subsectors targeted directly by United States tariffs, including transportation equipment, and metal products.

However, retail sales volumes edged up in April, and early data indicates a jump in oil production in Alberta, pointe out RBC.

The advance estimate for May output will be closely watched as early indicators are mixed, stated the bank. Trade-reliant sectors like manufacturing continued to weaken, with contracting hours worked and employment declining. However, other parts of the economy provided offset and overall employment still edged higher in May. Data from Indeed.com showed hiring demand stabilizing into June.

Tariffs have impacted production and employment in certain sectors, but it's likely too soon to see substantial effects in consumer prices, added RBC. Some import-reliant categories like food and autos have experienced accelerating price growth, but recent upside surprises in consumer prices have predominantly come from domestically produced and consumed services.

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