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CIBC's Week Ahead Market Call For Canada

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 06/20/25 01:55 PM EDT

01:55 PM EDT, 06/20/2025 (MT Newswires) -- CIBC's Ali Jaffery and Katherine Judge noted all eyes will be on the CPI report Tuesday to see if core measures show a sufficient enough moderation in the monthly pace to allow the Bank of Canada to cut in July. CIBC forecasts a rise of 0.6% month over month and 1.8% year over year in May, compared to a consensus 0.5% and 1.7%.

According to the same duo, the GDP data for April next Friday is likely to show no growth. They said a further weakening in the May advance estimate would add to the evidence that the one-time lift to inflation from tariffs will be offset by weaker demand ahead. CIBC is forecasting 0.0% month over month.

(On the calendar for next week are a $5.3 billion auction of 10-Yr Canadas on Wednesday and a $6 billion auction of 2-Year Canadas on Thursday. April Payrolls data is also slated for release Thursday.)

Price: 94.43, Change: -0.14, Percent Change: -0.15

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In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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