MORNING BID EUROPE-Gloom pervades ahead of Fed meet's outcome

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 06/18/25 12:30 AM EDT

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee

Markets head into Wednesday's Federal Reserve rates decision with much uncertainty around the global economy, trade and geopolitical ties.

With the Israel-Iran air war entering a sixth day, the G7 wealthy nations struggling to find unity over the conflict in Ukraine, and more signs of fragility in the U.S. economy, the drumbeat of negative headlines offered little respite for investors.

U.S. President Donald Trump's call for Iran's unconditional surrender and comments from him suggesting a more aggressive stance toward Iran have also stoked worries of greater U.S. involvement.

It was again a risk-off tone in markets on Wednesday, with shares in Asia falling and the dollar buoyant.

Stock futures similarly pointed to a mostly lower opening in Europe, though oil prices steadied a little after surging more than 4% in the previous session.

It's an increasingly difficult line for Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues to tread given the challenging global backdrop, and much attention on the central bank's policy decision will be on its updated Summary of Economic Projections.

For now, markets are still pricing in two Fed cuts by December, but that could very well change should Powell strike a more hawkish tone later in the day.

Ahead of the Fed outcome, UK inflation data is also due on Wednesday, where consumer prices are expected to have slowed slightly in May after April's bigger-than-expected surge.

The reading comes ahead of a policy decision by the Bank of England on Thursday, where expectations are for the central bank to keep rates on hold.

Still, investors will be looking for hints on whether a slowing economy and weaker wage growth could speed up the pace of easing.

One of Britain's leading business groups on Wednesday slashed its forecast for economic growth in 2025 and next year due to headwinds from Trump's tariffs and an increase in payroll taxes, a survey showed.

Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:

- Federal Reserve rate decision

- UK CPI (May)

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(Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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