Canada's Housing Starts Remain "Elevated" in May, Says TD

09:23 AM EDT, 06/16/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian housing starts came in at a "healthy" rate of 279,500 annualized units in May, essentially holding on to April's large gain, said TD.

Meanwhile, the six-month moving average of starts inched higher by 0.8% month over month to 243,400 units in Monday's data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

In urban markets, May's performance was evenly split across the multi-family and single-detached sectors, with the former rising by 2,000 to 217,300 units, while the latter declined by the same amount to 42,500 units.

Urban starts were up in five of 10 provinces:

-- Starts rose strongly in Quebec (+10,000 to 61,000 units) while inching higher in Ontario (+1,800 to 66,000 units). They also increased in the Prairies (+6,200 to 81,000 units), lifted by Manitoba and Alberta.

-- Starts dropped in the Atlantic (-2,300 to 16,000 units), weighed down by Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia. They also pulled back significantly in British Columbia (-15,400 to 36,000 units).

With May's solid level, housing starts are on track to increase in q2, stated the bank. This bodes well for residential investment and should help offset some softness on this component coming through from home sales.

Elevated building permits suggest that homebuilding can maintain a healthy pace in the near term, but TD doesn't expect this to last.

Homebuilding should cool moving forward as slower population growth, falling rents in key markets, high construction costs, and past declines in home sales weigh on activity, added the bank.

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