U.S. Trade Court Ruling Sends 30-Year Treasury Yield Above 5%

U.S. Treasury yields are climbing swiftly, with the 30-year yield rising back above 5% and the 10-year jumping to 4.50% after the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled President Donald Trump's key tariff measures illegal.

The court said Congress had exclusive authority to regulate trade with other countries, and the president exceeded his authority by invoking emergency economic powers not intended for imposing broad trade levies, according to news service reports. While Wednesday's ruling nullifies the general 10% and reciprocal duties, it does not affect sector-specific tariffs like those on steel or autos. The administration said it plans to appeal the ruling.

Over the past two sessions, the 10-year yield has rise from 4.40%, underscoring how sensitive the bond market remains to policy shifts and geopolitical developments.

Despite the ruling, macro uncertainty continues to loom large. As the Kobeissi Letter points out, tensions between the U.S. and China are far from easing. The U.S. has ordered domestic chip designers to halt sales to China, paused exports of critical chip software and jet-engine technologies, and announced plans to begin revoking visas of Chinese students in a signal of a renewed push toward decoupling.

The Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the U.S. currency's value against a basket of trade partners, has responded in kind, climbing to 100 from 98 as investors flock to the dollar amid global uncertainty and rising yields. Meanwhile, both bitcoin BTC and gold remain in a holding pattern, suggesting markets are bracing for the next major policy move or geopolitical surprise.