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Goldman Sachs cuts aluminium price forecast on weaker growth outlook

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 04/14/25 10:29 AM EDT

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (GS) on Monday reduced its forecast for aluminium prices this year after its economists downgraded global growth forecasts including for the U.S. and China following the Trump administration's move to sharply increase tariffs.

"We now expect the aluminium price to fall to a monthly average low of $2,000 (per metric ton) in Q3 2025," the bank said in a note.

Goldman expects prices to rebound to $2,300 per metric ton (/t) by December 2025, compared to its earlier forecast of $2,650/t. London Metals Exchange (LME) aluminium was trading at around $2,392/t as of 1300 GMT on Monday.

U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed or floated plans for a series of global tariffs since his return to office, including 25% tariffs on steel, aluminium and auto parts alongside major tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China.

Aluminium, a lightweight and corrosion-resistant metal, plays a critical role across industries including transportation, packaging, and electronics.

Trump said on Sunday that he would be announcing the tariff rate on imported semiconductors this week.

Goldman also forecast a global aluminium market surplus of 580,000 tons in 2025, versus its previous forecast of a 76,000 tons deficit.

It attributed this to a downward revision to its global total aluminium demand growth forecast to 1.1% year-on-year in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, as the bank expects a hit from weaker global GDP growth. Previously it had expected demand growth of 2.6% this year and 2.4% in 2026.

Goldman said it still expects aluminium prices to go up after 2025, but not as much as it estimated before, as the extra supply built up during 2025-2026 will help soften the rise.

According to the note, aluminium prices will be at $2,720/t by December 2026, instead of $3,100 forecast previously, and average around $2,800 per ton in 2027, when Goldman sees the market entering a 722,000 tons deficit.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Andrea Ricci)

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