Factbox-Some brokerages see more Fed rate cuts, recession risks after latest US tariffs

(Reuters) -Major brokerages including Goldman Sachs and RBC see more rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve following President Donald Trump's latest tariffs.

Trump on Wednesday imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the U.S. and higher duties on dozens of other countries, sparking fears of a global economic slowdown.

J.P.Morgan raised its global and U.S. recession odds to 60% from 40% for this year, while Barclays and Deutsche Bank see recession risk for the U.S. if the tariffs remain in place.

Currently, traders on average expect rate cuts totaling 100 basis points for the year, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages after latest tariffs:

Brokerage Total cuts in No. of cuts in 2025 Fed Funds Rate

2025

Deutsche Bank No rate cut 0 4.25-4.50% (end of

2025)

Morgan Stanley No rate cut 0 4.25-4.50% (end of

2025)

Goldman Sachs 75 bps 3 (25 bps each in 3.5-3.75%(through

July, September and December)

December)

J.P.Morgan 50 bps 2 (25 bps each in 3.75-4.00% (through

June and September) September 2025)

Citigroup 125 bps 5 (starting in May) 3.00-3.25% (end of

2025)

Barclays 50 bps 2 (25 bps each in 3.75-4.00% (through

June and September) September)

Berenberg No rate cut 0 4.25-4.50% (end of

2025)

Nomura 25 bps 1 (in December) 3.50 - 3.75% (end of

2025)

HSBC 75 bps 3 (25 bps each in 3.50-3.75% (end of

June, September and 2025)

December)

ING 50 bps 2 (H2 2025) 3.75-4.00% (end of

2025)

Wells Fargo 75 bps 3 (25 bps each in 3.50-3.75% (end of

June, September and 2025)

December)

BofA Global Research No rate cut 0 4.25-4.50% (end of

2025)

RBC Capital Markets - 3

UBS Global Wealth 75-100bps -

Management

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva, Mrigank Dhaniwala and Krishna Chandra Eluri)