JGB yields tank as investors unwind positions made for BOJ rate hike

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 04/04/25 01:03 AM EDT

TOKYO, April 4 (Reuters) - Japanese government bond (JGB) yields tanked on Friday as bets for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike receded, prompting investors to unwind positions they made for the policy tightening.

The 10-year JGB yield fell 17.5 basis points to 1.185% to its lowest level since January 29, the biggest decline since August 5, and is down nearly 37 bps this week, their steepest weekly fall since 1992.

The two-year JGB yield fell 11.5 bps to 0.635% and the five-year yield fell 15.5 bps to 0.81%.

"Investors had been selling mid-to-long term JGBs as they braced for the central bank's interest rate hike," said Naoya Hasegawa, chief bond strategist at Okasan Securities.

"Now they are unwinding those positions as investors turned pessimistic about the outlook of the global economy as U.S. tariff cast clouds over the growth," he said.

The bets that the BOJ could raise its policy rate beyond 1% sometime next year sent yields across some tenors to 17-year highs only last week.

These expectations have retreated after U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday Washington's steepest trade barriers in more than 100 years, sending investors scrambling for safe-haven assets, including the bonds.

Swap rate now shows a 1.38% chance of the BOJ raising the policy rate by 25 bps to 0.75%, down from some 9% in the previous session.

The 20-year JGB yield fell 12 bps to 1.97% and the 30-year JGB yield declined 9.5 bps to 2.295%.

The 40-year JGB yield fell 4 bps to 2.64%.

(Reporting by Junko Fujita; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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