FOREX-Yen gains, gold hits peak as tariff uncertainties lift safe-haven bids

BY Reuters | TREASURY | 03/31/25 05:01 AM EDT

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White House to announce suite of reciprocal levies on Wednesday

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Dollar under pressure from sliding Treasury yields

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Hotter-than-expected US inflation spurs stagflation worries

(Updates with early European trading)

By Kevin Buckland and Yadarisa Shabong

TOKYO, March 31 (Reuters) - The safe-haven Japanese yen rallied on Monday while gold pushed to a fresh peak as uncertainty around tariffs clouded the outlook for U.S. inflation and economic growth and kept traders away from risky assets, as well as the dollar.

Markets are nervous ahead of a new round of reciprocal levies that the White House is due to announce on Wednesday. Details are scarce, but U.S. President Donald Trump said late on Sunday that essentially all countries will be slapped with duties this week.

The yen strengthened to 148.7 per U.S. dollar at one point on Monday, and was last 0.43% stronger at 149.135. The Japanese currency rallied 0.82% on Friday, when U.S. data showed core inflation rose more than expected last month, fuelling fears of stagflation.

"I think only one thing can be said with certainty is that the uncertainty will not end with the announcement of the reciprocal tariffs by Trump on the 2nd of April," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy, at Rabobank.

Gold pushed to an unprecedented $3,128.06, marking three consecutive sessions registering record highs.

The euro eased 0.13% to $1.08205, though it is set for a nearly 4.5% rise this quarter, its biggest jump since the third quarter of 2022, thanks to Germany's fiscal overhaul.

The likely implementation of tariffs imposed by the United States means Europe will have to take better control of its future, European Central Bank (ECB) head Christine Lagarde said on Monday, reiterating the impact of tariffs and tit-for-tat measures on the bloc's growth.

On Friday, Trump had said he was open to carving out deals with countries seeking to avoid tariffs, but the Washington Post reported at the weekend he was urging his advisers to take a more aggressive stance.

"Across-the-board tariffs would be a negative surprise, in our view," Merrill Lynch analysts Michalis Rousakis and Claudio Piron wrote in a research note.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, trod water at 104.03.

"This week is quite a big data week for the U.S., particularly with payrolls data at the end of the week and it seems that the market is a little bit reluctant to buy the dollar," Foley said.

U.S. non-farm payrolls data is due on Friday.

Elsewhere, the pound rose 0.15% to $1.2949 and is set for a nearly 3% monthly climb - its best since November 2023.

A British government spokesperson said Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Trump had "productive negotiations" towards a trade deal in a phone call on Sunday.

The Canadian dollar eased at C$1.4347 per greenback. Mexico's peso slipped to 20.3932 per dollar.

The Aussie eased 0.56% to $0.6256 on Monday, ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy meeting on Tuesday. (Reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo and Yadarisa Shabong in Bengaluru Editing by Stephen Coates, Sam Holmes and Frances Kerry)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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