TREASURIES-Long-term yields rise to highest levels in over a month after auto tariffs

BY Reuters | TREASURY | 03/27/25 10:50 AM EDT

By Davide Barbuscia

NEW YORK, March 27 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury long-term yields rose to their highest levels in over a month on Thursday as investors weighed the inflationary impact of President Donald Trump's latest tariff moves alongside fresh data showing continued economic resilience. Trump unveiled late on Wednesday his plan to implement 25% tariffs on imported cars and light trucks effective next week, while the duties on auto parts are expected to begin from May 3. Investors are also bracing for a wave of reciprocal tariffs he plans to unveil next week, though the U.S. president has hinted there may be room for flexibility in the final policy. Meanwhile, in a sign the labor market is holding up, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits slipped last week, while the jobless rate appeared to have held steady in March, Labor Department data showed on Thursday.

That data followed other strong readings earlier this week, including the services sector in S&P's PMI index for March and the durable goods orders report for February, which were both stronger than anticipated.

"Yields are starting to feel a bit of a trend here as U.S. economic data is coming in better than expectations," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. "Maybe there is a bit of an inflation input priced in, but growth isn't as bad as we thought."

Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, declined marginally after the release of fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth data.

While the headline figure was revised to 2.4%, higher than the consensus estimate of 2.3% in a Reuters poll, the data also showed consumer spending growth in the last three months of 2024 was revised lower by two-tenths of a percentage point to 4%. An analyst at BMO Capital Markets said in a note that the specifics within the fourth-quarter economic growth data were likely to tilt first-quarter GDP estimates lower.

Benchmark 10-year yields were last at about 4.36%, about three basis points higher than on Wednesday. They earlier hit an intra-day high of 4.4% - the highest level since February 24. Longer-dated 30-year yields touched a high of 4.755%, the highest level since February 20.

Two-year yields, which more closely reflect market expectations for changes in monetary policy, were last at 3.99%, about two basis points lower on the day.

That meant the closely watched yield curve that plots the premium of 10-year yields over two-year yields widened to about 37 basis points, the widest since mid-January.

Later on Thursday, the Treasury will sell $44 billion in seven-year notes, the last of this week's government debt sales. A two-year note sale on Tuesday was well-received, while a five-year note issuance on Wednesday met lukewarm demand. (Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Paul Simao)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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