FOREX-Yen on back foot after US inflation data, euro buoyed by Ukraine peace talks

BY Reuters | TREASURY | 02/12/25 08:18 PM EST

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Hotter-than-expected US inflation data pushes up Treasury yields

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Fed expected to maintain higher interest rates longer

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Euro firms as US plans Russia-Ukraine peace talks

By Brigid Riley

TOKYO, Feb 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar held near a one-week high against the Japanese yen on Thursday after a hotter-than-expected consumer prices reading, while the euro was shored up by news that Washington aims to begin talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine.

U.S. President Donald Trump also said he would soon impose reciprocal tariffs on every country that charges duties on U.S. imports, keeping alive fears of a widening global trade war that threatens to accelerate U.S. inflation.

Against the yen, the dollar was down 0.06% at 154.33 , not far off Wednesday's high of 154.80 hit as U.S. Treasury yields climbed following inflation reading.

U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in nearly 1-1/2 years, up by 0.5% in January versus the previous month, while core index rose by 0.4%. Both were expected to rise by 0.3%.

Headline consumer price added 3.0% for the year, while core prices rose at an annual pace of 3.3%.

Market players are increasing bets the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates higher for longer, pricing in roughly 28 basis points worth of rate cuts for this year, versus around 37 basis points before the data.

"The Fed will now have ample justification to stay on hold and be able to see what government policies come into force and gauge their effects," said Tom Nakamura, currency strategist and co-head of fixed income at AGF Investments.

Along with tariffs, U.S. policies regarding immigration, taxes and regulation may also affect the economy's direction.

At his second congressional hearing this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday reiterated that the central bank is in no rush to cut rates.

The U.S. producer price index release later on Thursday will provide clues as to how hot the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, may come in at on February 28.

The euro edged up 0.14% to $1.0398, buoyed as Trump ordered top U.S. officials to begin talks on ending the war in Ukraine.

The Russian rouble surged overnight to a 4-1/2 month peak against the dollar.

Sterling stood at $1.2456, up 0.09% so far on the day.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against the yen, euro and other peers, ticked 0.03% lower to 107.88, after touching a one-week high of 108.52 in the previous session.

"On the margin a less dovish Fed is supportive for the U.S. dollar, but the main focus for markets in the short term will be the mix of policies coming out of Washington," said AGF's Nakamura.

After a dizzying couple of weeks filled with tariff news, traders have been trying to tease out how Trump's threats will play out. Some market players are betting tariffs will be a plus for the dollar.

On Monday, Washington announced new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports into the United States, leaving trade partners scrambling.

The Canadian dollar was steady and the Mexican peso under some pressure, with a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada delayed until March 4 to allow for negotiations.

Trump last week imposed an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, and Chinese countermeasures took effect this week.

The offshore yuan traded at 7.3105 yuan per dollar, up about 0.02% in early Asian trade.

(Reporting by Brigid Riley; Editing by Jamie Freed)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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