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KBRA Releases Monthly CMBS Trend Watch

BY Business Wire | AGENCY | 02/05/25 10:41 AM EST

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- KBRA releases the January 2025 issue of CMBS Trend Watch.

Following on the heels of a strong 2024 issuance year, January continued to exhibit strength, with year-over-year (YoY) private label CMBS issuance increasing 38.1%. This was despite the benchmark rate increasing, while credit spreads remained stable relative to year-end. Commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations (CRE CLO) issuance was also very active in January, already reaching approximately one-half of full-year 2024 volume in the month. Despite the possible volatility that the current administration?s policy shifts may bring, February should also bring solid gains based on our current visibility, as there could be up to 21 rated deals including nine single borrower (SB), seven conduits, three CRE CLO, and two Freddie Mac (Agency).

In January, KBRA published pre-sales for six deals including two conduits ($1.8 billion), two SB ($1.7 billion), one re-remic ($3.5 billion), and one CRE CLO ($984 million). January?s surveillance activity included rating reviews of 420 securities issued in connection with 50 transactions. Of the 420 ratings, 340 were affirmed, 56 were downgraded, and 24 were upgraded. In addition, eight ratings were maintained on Watch Developing based on one deal.

This month?s edition also highlights recent KBRA research publications that cover various topical issues.

Click here to view the report.

Recent Publications

  • 2025 CMBS Sector Outlook: Twin Peaks?
  • CREFC January Conference 2025 ? Day 3 Recap
  • CREFC January Conference 2025 ? Day 2 Recap
  • KBRA Releases CREFC January Conference 2025 ? Day 1 Recap
  • 2024 CMBS Loan Maturities: Payoff Rates Decrease
  • KBRA CMBS Loss Compendium Update: December 2024
  • CMBS Trend Watch: December 2024
  • CMBS Loan Performance Trends: January 2025

About KBRA

KBRA, one of the major credit rating agencies, is registered in the U.S., EU, and the UK. KBRA is recognized as a Qualified Rating Agency in Taiwan, and is also a Designated Rating Organization for structured finance ratings in Canada. As a full-service credit rating agency, investors can use KBRA ratings for regulatory capital purposes in multiple jurisdictions.

Doc ID: 1007884

Source: Kroll Bond Rating Agency, LLC

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In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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