TREASURIES -US long-dated yields rise on market relief amid tariff delay

BY Reuters | TREASURY | 02/04/25 11:51 AM EST

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US JOLTS report shows lower job openings

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US factory orders drop

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US yield curve steepens as bond market stabilizes

(Recasts, adds analyst comment, bullets, byline, updates prices)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Long-dated U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday after the Trump administration granted 30-day tariff reprieves to Canada and Mexico, unwinding some of the previous session's safe-haven bid that had pushed rates lower,

However, data showing U.S. job openings dropped sharply in December saw longer-dated yields pare some of their earlier gains, led by the 10-year note. The benchmark 10-year yield was last up 1.2 basis points (bps) at 4.555%, after dropping on Monday to its lowest since mid-December.

Data showed that job openings, a measure of labor demand, slid to 7.6 million on the last day of December, based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report. The market's focus, however, has been less on the data and more on tariffs.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday suspended his threat of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada at the last minute, agreeing to a 30-day pause in return for concessions on border and crime enforcement.

China, on the other hand, imposed targeted tariffs on American imports on Tuesday and put several companies, including Google, on notice for possible sanctions, in what market participants described as a measured response to an additional 10% U.S. tariff on Chinese exports.

"What we're seeing today is a bit of a relief not only due to delays on tariffs on Mexico and Canada, but a more measured opening salvo between the U.S. and China," said Chip Hughey, managing director of fixed income, at Truist Advisory Services in Richmond, Virginia.

China's new tariffs will not take effect until Feb. 10, giving Washington and Beijing time to try to seek a deal that Chinese policymakers have indicated they hope to reach with Trump.

In late morning trading, U.S. two-year yields, which are tied to the Federal Reserve's policy moves, fell 3.5 bps to 4.230%.

Also helping push the two-year yield down was a report showing that new orders for U.S.-manufactured goods dropped 0.9% in December after a revised 0.8% decline in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders would fall 0.7% after a previously reported 0.4% drop in November

The rise in the 10-year yield and the fall in the two-year slightly steepened the yield curve to 31.9 bps, from 30.2 bps late on Monday. The curve hit its narrowest since late December on Monday after the initial tariff announcements.

Investors have been selling the long end of the curve, demanding higher compensation, the so-called "term premium", in exchange for dealing with policy uncertainty over a longer time horizon.

The current term premium for U.S. 10-year notes stood at 72 bps, according to estimates from the St. Louis Fed, compared with about 45 bps in early December.

"You expect yields to fall further, but that lack of clarity on policy is really giving intermediate and long-term investors more pause," said Truist's Hughey.

U.S. 30-year yields also edged higher to 4.790%, up 1.9 bps .

U.S. rate futures, meanwhile, have priced in about 44 bps of easing this year, up from 41 bps late on Monday, according to LSEG calculations, with the first rate cut likely happening at the Fed's June policy meeting. (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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