TREASURIES-Treasury yields fall as tariffs push investors into to safer assets

BY Reuters | TREASURY | 02/02/25 11:09 PM EST

(Updates with trading in the Asia session)

SINGAPORE, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Treasuries rallied on Monday as impending U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China drove investors into safe assets despite trepidation about inflation risks.

Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields were down nearly 7 basis points to 4.50% by midday in Tokyo and two-year yields unwound an initial rise to be steady at 4.24%.

Treasury futures saw some early selling but were firmer by midmorning, as were bond markets around Asia.

The overall market mood was jittery.

"Markets are less sure how to price growth versus inflation, when it comes to tariffs," said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Asia outside Japan at Mizuho Securities in Singapore.

"I expect it to get bumpy. There's so much tension and uncertainty, markets don't know which way to price it ... it really wouldn't surprise me if yields need to have a huge repricing one way or another."

Tariffs, in theory, slow growth which ought to support bonds. However, they also raise prices and potentially give companies cover for further price hikes or for consumers to start to expect price rises and press for higher wages.

Fed funds futures fell slightly in the Asia morning to reflect doubts on the depth of future rate cuts. Futures are roughly pricing a 54% chance of two cuts this year and 44% for just one.

"Increased U.S. tariffs underscore our view 10-year Treasury yields will rise to 5% as a second Trump term boosts inflation," said, Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief economist at Bank of Singapore, the private banking arm of OCBC Bank. (Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Sonali Paul and Edwina Gibbs)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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