TREASURIES-US yields edge up in choppy trading as inflation meets expectations

By Karen Brettell

Jan 31 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields briefly jumped and then fell to end only modestly higher on the day on Friday after data showed that core inflation rise at a moderate pace in December while consumer spending surged, solidifying expectations the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for the coming months.

The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% last month, in line with economists' expectations, for an annual gain of 2.8%. The headline PCE price index rose 0.3% last month for an annual gain of 2.6%.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, meanwhile beat estimates with a 0.7% jump during the month.

"The very strong personal income spending data continues to suggest that the consumer remains resilient. At the same time, you do have inflationary pressures continuing to fade," said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities in New York. "It really underscores that the Fed can keep rates on hold, at least for the next meeting or so if data like this continues."

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank wants to see further progress in inflation before cutting rates, but also expressed confidence that it remains on the right path to ease back closer to the Fed's 2% annual target.

Fed governor Michelle Bowman said on Friday she still expects declining inflation to allow further interest rate cuts this year, but feels rising wages, buoyant financial markets, geopolitical risks, and upcoming administration policies could slow the process and keep price pressures elevated.

Uncertainty over the impact of potential tariffs by the Donald Trump administration is muddying the outlook on the economy.

"Markets are struggling to figure out what to focus on here. I think that's one of the biggest issues... that the data seems to be relatively good, but there's a lot of uncertainty about tariffs and really what comes next on that front," Goldberg said.

Companies, consumers and farmers across North America braced on Friday for Trump to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports within hours, moves that could disrupt nearly $1.6 trillion in annual trade.

The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with Fed interest rate expectations, was last up 1.2 basis points on the day at 4.21%.

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 1 basis points to 4.523%.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes was little changed on the day at 31.6 basis points.

(Reporting By Karen Brettell, Editing by Nick Zieminski)