TREASURIES-US yields pulled lower as ECB cuts rates
BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 01/30/25 04:13 PM EST*
Yields slip in line with European government debt
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US data shows fall in applications for unemployment benefits
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Data also showed slower fourth-quarter growth
(Recasts, updates yields, adds comment in paragraphs 1-2, 5-6 and 11-12)
By Karen Brettell and Douglas Gillison
NEW YORK/WASHINGTON Jan 30 (Reuters) - Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note briefly touched a six-week low on Thursday, tracking those of European government bonds after a rate cut from the European Central Bank, but pared losses after U.S. data pointed to economic resilience at the end of 2024.
Growth in fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product slowed to a 2.3% clip in the fourth quarter, undershooting expectations but buoyed by strong consumer spending. The numbers came a day after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank was in no hurry to cut interest rates again.
The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points and kept the door open to further policy easing as concerns over economic growth supersede worries about persistent inflation.
On Wednesday, the Fed had held rates steady and Powell said inflation and jobs data would determine when another easing would come.
Lou Brien, strategist at DRW Trading, said Powell had also spotlighted some warning signs in the U.S. labor market.
"I think that combination of the Fed signaling they're not in any rush to continue easing rates...and the continued concern about the labor market would also be a reason to buy the Treasuries," he said.
The Fed also must gauge the impact of policies enacted by the Donald Trump administration on the U.S. economy.
Fed funds futures traders are pricing in the next rate cut as being most likely in June, and see two 25 basis point cuts as likely by year-end.
The next major economic release will be Friday's PCE data for December. It is expected to show that headline prices rose 0.3% in the month while core prices rose by 0.2%, for an annual gain of 2.6% and 2.8%, respectively, according to economists polled by Reuters.
The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with Fed interest rate expectations, was down 2.9 basis points by mid-afternoon at 4.199%.
Benchmark 10-year yields were 3.9 basis points lower at 4.5163% after earlier touching 4.486%, the lowest yield since Dec. 20.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 31.5 basis points, not much changed from 31 bp late Wednesday.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.518% after closing at 2.557% on Wednesday.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.379%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.4% a year for the next decade. (Reporting by Karen Bretell and Douglas Gillison; Editing by Alden Bentley, Barbara Lewis and Lisa Shumaker)