Trump's second term illuminates bullish path for gold in 2025

By Anushree Mukherjee

(Reuters) - Gold prices look set for a record-breaking 2025 as heightened economic uncertainty and inflation concern under U.S. President Donald Trump's second term boost demand, despite dollar strength and reduced Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations.

The poll of 36 analysts and traders returned a median forecast of $2,756 per troy ounce of gold in 2025, up from $2,674 predicted in a poll three months ago.

Spot gold prices hit a record high of $2,790.15 in late October and were last at $2,742 on Monday. The average price was $2,386 in 2024. [PREC/POLL]

Gold's impressive 27% price rise in 2024, the most since 2010, made it one of the best performing assets of the year, as investors favoured the metal to hedge against global risks and the U.S. Federal Reserve slashed interest rates three times.

"Geopolitical risks continue to bubble in various hot spots adding to inflationary risks and continued safe-haven demand for gold," said independent analyst Robin Bhar.

Gold retreated in November to December in a U.S. post-election selloff and a December meeting which saw Fed policymakers trim estimates of rate cuts for 2025.

This month, the metal found support from investor uncertainty over Trump's U.S. import tariff threats and concerns that possible trade conflicts would stoke inflation.

"With record gold prices foreseen, some sectors in the bullion market will benefit and others struggle," said independent analyst Ross Norman. He added that jewellery demand was likely to be affected in price-sensitive Asian regions, while motivation for purchases by central banks and speculative interest in gold was likely to remain elevated. [GOL/AS]

SILVER TO REMAIN IN DEFICIT

Silver prices are expected to benefit from robust industrial demand, especially in green technologies and renewable energy sectors, but lacklustre investment demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the potential impact of tariffs on global growth could affect the metal's prospects, analysts said.

"The silver market is set to remain undersupplied in 2025, but a deficit alone will not be sufficient to drive upside price risk for silver," said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper, adding that investment demand has struggled to keep pace in recent months.

The poll forecasts silver prices to average $33.10 per ounce in 2025, lower than $33.75 estimated in the previous poll, but higher than the current $30.20.