Argentina's Milei set to clinch trade surplus record on grains, energy exports

By Hernan Nessi

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentina likely logged the largest trade surplus in its history in 2024, a Reuters analyst poll released on Friday showed, on the back of libertarian President Javier Milei's bid to boost grains and energy exports in his first full year in office.

Milei, who has been president since December 2023, vowed to make Argentina a net energy exporter using the vast shale reserves in the Patagonian Vaca Muerta region. Grains exports, aided by some easing of currency controls and better weather, also rose.

Argentina is the world's top exporter of processed soy oil and meal, the third largest for corn and an important wheat and beef producer. It has major lithium reserves needed for electric batteries, as well as shale gas and oil.

Analysts polled by Reuters forecast the year-end trade surplus between $18 billion and $19 billion, blowing past the previous record of $16.89 billion set in 2009.

The December monthly data, set to be published by the national statistics agency on Monday, was estimated to be a $921 million surplus, according to the median of the Reuters poll.

From January to November, Argentina logged a $17.20 billion trade surplus, official data show, turning around the $7.94 billion trade deficit in the first 11 months of 2023.

TRADE SURPLUS LIKELY TO NARROW IN 2025

Milei's drive to turn Argentina's economy around through an austerity push has also brought inflation down to close the year at 117.8%, after an April peak of nearly 300%.

Analysts say Argentina's trade surplus is likely to narrow.

"From here on out, we'll likely see a scenario in which imports grow considerably," said Federico Gonzalez, an economist at Empiria Consultores.

Imports have already begun to tick up as the Argentine peso has strengthened against other regional currencies, such as the Brazilian real, and as the Milei administration has lifted some taxes on certain goods.

The government this week announced plans to lift anti-dumping restrictions on imports to bring down prices on goods such as household appliances.

"In 2025 we may see the trade balance come in at just 40% of the 2024 surplus," said Milagros Suardi, economist at consulting firm Eco Go. "That would come with a recovery in imports, as well as an economic recovery and improved exchange rate."

(Reporting by Hernan Nessi, Writing by Kylie Madry, Editing by Timothy Heritage)