US businesses optimistic but flag concerns, Fed survey shows

Jan 15 (Reuters) - U.S. economic activity increased slightly to moderately in late November and December, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday, with employment ticking up and prices rising moderately amid concerns about the potential impact of policies under President-elect Donald Trump.

The findings, which draw on observations from the business and community contacts of each of the Fed's 12 regional banks, provide a snapshot of the economy.

"Contacts expected prices to continue to rise in 2025, with some noting the potential for higher tariffs to contribute to price increases," the U.S. central bank said in its summary of surveys and interviews from across the country known collectively as the Beige Book. "More contacts were optimistic about the outlook for 2025 than were pessimistic about it, though contacts in several Districts expressed concerns that changes in immigration and tariff policy could negatively affect the economy."

Fed policymakers cut the policy rate by a full percentage point in the final four months of last year to a current range of 4.25%-4.50%. Most project a smaller reduction this year, given slowing progress toward the Fed's 2% inflation goal in recent months and a strong labor market.

Consumer prices rose 2.9% in the 12 months through December, data published Wednesday showed, the largest rise since July and an acceleration from November's 2.7% increase. December's unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the prior month.

Going forward, uncertainty around how Trump's planned tariffs, tax cuts and other policies will affect the economy also has Fed policymakers in wait-and-see mode.

Financial markets are betting on no policy-rate reduction until June at the earliest. (Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea Ricci)