GLOBAL MARKETS-Traders mark time ahead of US CPI, bank earnings
BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 01/14/25 09:17 PM EST*
Asia shares subdued, S&P 500 futures +0.1%
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Dollar, short-term bond yields fall on PPI miss
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Much riding on U.S. CPI data
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Sterling, gilts in focus ahead of UK CPI data
(Updates with Asia open)
By Stella Qiu and Caroline Valetkevitch
SYDNEY/NEW YORK, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Global markets treaded water on Wednesday ahead of U.S. consumer price data that could potentially lower the possibility for a rate cut this year, while investors waited to see if earnings of big banks would match sky-high expectations.
U.S. equity futures were slightly firmer in Asia, with S&P 500 futures up 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.2%. Japan's Nikkei gave up earlier gains to be off 0.1%, extending its losing streak to five days.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.1%. China's blue chips fell 0.4% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dropped 0.3%.
In other news that broke in Asia, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued tech billionaire Elon Musk for having failed to timely disclose purchasing more than 5% of Twitter's common stock in 2022.
Overnight, U.S. producer price data for December was surprisingly tame, with the core measure flat in the month. That restrained the U.S. dollar and pulled short-term Treasury yields off their highs. The S&P 500 closed 0.1% higher.
Still, futures continued to price in just 29 basis points of easing from the Federal Reserve this year, with the first cut not fully priced in until September. While 10-year Treasury yields initially fell on the PPI data, they bounced back and ended the day just a tick lower than the high of 4.809%.
In Asia, the benchmark U.S. yield was little changed at 4.786% on Wednesday.
Much is riding on the CPI data due later on Wednesday. Forecasts are centred on a small 0.2% rise in the core measure, with risks skewed to the upside. A strong reading of 0.3% or more could trigger another bout of selling in stocks and bonds.
"This CPI print is a pivot data point. A dovish print likely
reignites the rally which is likely to get a boost from a strong
earnings period," said analysts at JPMorgan
"A hawkish print could see the 10Y yield make a run at 5%, increasing volatility across all asset classes, and continuing to pressure equities."
Investors are also gearing up for U.S. fourth-quarter 2024
earnings, with results from some of the biggest U.S. banks -
including Citi and JPMorgan
In Europe, the spotlight is again on the UK after concerns about the country's fiscal outlook pummelled government bonds to 16-year lows. The local CPI report is due on Wednesday and is expected to show underlying inflation picked up to a monthly rate of 0.5%.
The pound slipped 0.1% to $1.2198, just a touch above a one-year low of $1.2099.
The euro held at $1.03, having rallied 0.6% overnight. The Japanese yen underperformed even in the face of a weaker U.S. dollar, hovering at 157.95 per dollar after a 0.3% retreat overnight.
In the commodities market, oil prices were slightly higher after ending Tuesday more than 1% lower.
U.S. crude rose 0.3% to $77.74 a barrel and Brent was 0.2% higher at $80.09. (Reporting by Stella Qiu in Sydney and Caroline Valetkevitch in New York; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)