FOREX-US dollar bounces back as strong jobs data backs Fed rate-cut pause

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 09:54 AM EST

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      US dollar hits six month high vs yen


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      Euro falls to lowest since Nov. 22 vs dollar


        *
      US dollar index on track for sixth weekly gain


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      Sterling falls to lowest since Nov. 2023 vs dollar


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      US rate futures price in just one rate cut in 2025


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 (Adds analyst comment, details of jobs data, bullets, byline, FX
table; updates prices)
    By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
       NEW YORK, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rallied across
the board on Friday after data showed the world's largest economy
created more jobs than expected last month, reinforcing expectations
that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate-cutting cycle at its
policy meeting later this month.
    The dollar rose to its highest since July against the yen after
the data and was last up 0.1% at 158.27 yen. The U.S.
currency has risen in five of the last six weeks.
        The euro, on the other hand, dropped to its lowest since
November 2022 versus the greenback. The single euro zone currency was
last down 0.6% at $1.024, falling for a second straight
week.
        A significant number of foreign exchange forecasters expect
the euro to reach parity with the dollar in 2025, a Reuters poll
showed this week.
    A Labor Department report showed the U.S. economy added 256,000
jobs in December, much higher than economists' forecasts for an
increase of 160,000. The November jobs number was revised downward to
212,000.
    The unemployment rate, meanwhile, dipped to 4.1%, compared with
expectations of a 4.2% reading, while average hourly earnings
increased 0.3% last month after gaining 0.4% in November. In the 12
months through December, wages advanced 3.9% after rising 4.0% in
November.
    "I think this will only encourage a continuation of the U.S.
dollar upside that has been the market's bias for a while, certainly
serves to reinforce the U.S. exceptionalism theme, and should keep the
Fed relatively hawkish compared to peers in the G10 space," said
Michael Brown, senior research strategist, at Pepperstone in London.
        Following the nonfarm payrolls number, the U.S. rate futures
market has fully priced in a pause in the Fed's easing cycle at the
January meeting, according to LSEG estimates. The market has also
priced in just 31 basis points of easing in 2025 or just one rate cut,
with the first rate move likely at the June meeting.
    In other currencies, sterling tumbled to its weakest level since
November 2023 against the dollar, and last changed hands at $1.2247,
down 0.5%. It was sold off as well on Thursday in tandem with
a selloff in gilt and concern about British government finances.
    In Japan, prospects of sustained wage gains and the boost to
import costs from a weak yen have heightened attention within the
central bank to rising inflationary pressures that may lead to an
upgrade in its price forecast this month, sources said.
        The dollar index, meanwhile, advanced to its highest
since November 2022, and was on track for a sixth consecutive weekly
gain. That's its longest run since an 11-week streak in 2023. The
index was last up 0.2% at 109.48.


 Currency
 bid
 prices at
 10
 January?
 02:44
 p.m. GMT
 Descripti  RIC    Last      U.S.       Pct     YTD Pct  High     Low
 on                          Close      Change           Bid      Bid
                             Previous
                             Session
 Dollar     07
 Euro/Doll  212
 Dollar/Ye  645
 Euro/Yen   05
 Dollar/Sw  15
 Sterling/  194?
 Dollar/Ca  76
 Aussie/Do  139
 Euro/Swis  86
 Euro/Ster  66
 NZ         43
 llar
 Dollar/No  921
 Euro/Norw  174
 Dollar/Sw  36
 Euro/Swed  75


 (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Saqib
Iqbal Ahmed and Greta Rosen Fondahn in Gdansk; Editing by Christina
Fincher)

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