TREASURIES-Yields dip as Trump policies stay in focus

BY Reuters | TREASURY | 02:21 PM EST

(Updated in New York afternoon time)

By Karen Brettell

NEW YORK, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Treasury yields eased on Thursday following a sharp selloff that sent 10-year yields to a more than eight-month high on Wednesday as traders evaluated the likely economic impact of policies proposed by the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump.

Business deregulation and tax cuts are likely to boost U.S. growth while a crackdown on illegal immigration and tariffs are seen as potentially fanning inflation. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, is expected to be more cautious in cutting interest rates as it watches the economic impact of the changes.

With considerable uncertainty over what policies exactly Trump will introduce, traders are pricing in much stronger growth as the default option, said Thomas Simons, U.S. economist at Jefferies in New York.

"We can't predict how it's going to go wrong," he said. "So you're left with this only path forward that is - well, I guess it means we're going to have more growth, it means we're going to have more inflation, it means that the Fed is probably not going to cut as much."

The U.S. government is also expected to increase debt auction sizes this year if the budget deficit continues to worsen, as is widely expected for the foreseeable future, and as it balances its debt maturity profile to rely less on shorter-dated bills.

Fed Governor

Michelle Bowman

and Boston Fed President

Susan Collins

on Thursday both expressed taking a cautious approach to further rate cuts.

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid also signaled a

reluctance

to cut interest rates again while Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he still expects the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates, but added that any sort of

imminent move down

isn't needed.

Thursday's pause in the bond selloff came before jobs data on Friday, which is expected to show that employers added 160,000 jobs during the month.

Trading volumes were also light as the U.S. bond market closed early in honor of former President Jimmy Carter.

Interest rate-sensitive two-year note yields fell 2.3 basis points on the day to 4.268%.

Benchmark 10-year yields fell 0.2 basis points to 4.691%. They peaked at 4.73% on Wednesday, the highest since April 25.

The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes steepened two basis points to 42.1 basis points, after reaching 42.9 basis points on Wednesday, the steepest since May 2022.

Thirty-year Treasury yields were flat at 4.932%, after reaching 4.968% on Wednesday, the highest since November 2023.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell Editing by Bernadette Baum and Deepa Babington)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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