GLOBAL MARKETS-US stocks dip as "Santa Claus rally" stalls, 10-year Treasury yields touch 8-month high

BY Reuters | TREASURY | 12/26/24 11:39 AM EST

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10-year Treasury yield touches highest level in 8 months

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Continuing jobless claims reaches largest number in over 3 years

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Bitcoin slides

(Updates to early U.S. trade)

By Stephen Culp

NEW YORK, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks headed lower on Thursday and U.S. benchmark Treasury yields scaled the highest level since April in light, post-Christmas trading.

The modest but broad-based sell-off pulled all three major U.S. stock indexes modestly lower despite the so-called Santa Claus rally, in which stocks often get a holiday season boost from low liquidity, tax loss harvesting and investment of year-end bonuses.

Uncertainties around President-elect Donald Trump's policies lifted gold prices and helped send the 10-year Treasury yield to a nearly eight-month high.

"It's light volume and now we are recovering some earlier losses due to some profit taking from Tuesday's rally," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. "I think we're in the Santa Claus rally, with a little bit of a bump in the road here today, and it's probably safe to say the year-end rally will continue."

With only a handful of trading days remaining in the year, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and the Dow have scored respective gains of 33%, 26% and 14% in 2024.

The major concerns for 2025 are the extent of the Federal Reserve's monetary easing, Trump's tariffs and other policies, and various geopolitical tensions.

On the economic front, new claims for unemployment benefits came in slightly below analysts' estimates, while ongoing claims jumped to their largest number since November 2021, suggesting laid off workers are having increasing difficulty finding new jobs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 28.97 points, or 0.07%, to 43,268.06, the S&P 500 slid 4.50 points, or 0.07%, to 6,035.54 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 18.10 points, or 0.09%, to 20,013.03.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged 0.1% lower but remained on track for a weekly gain.

World stocks appeared on course to wrap up the year with a second consecutive annual gain of more than 17%, unfazed by escalating geopolitical tensions and economic headwinds.

European markets were closed for Boxing Day.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe fell 0.29 points, or 0.03%, to 856.30.

Emerging market stocks fell 1.47 points, or 0.14%, to 1,084.39. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed 0.15% lower at 574.40, while Japan's Nikkei rose 437.63 points, or 1.12%, to 39,568.06.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield resumed its uphill climb.

"We're probably on a way to 4.75% to 5.0% on the 10-year note and the reason for that is that the bond market is full of uncertainties, while the stock market is full of enthusiasm," Cardillo said. "The bond market is projecting a hawkish Fed going into probably the first half of the year."

The benchmark U.S. 10-year note yield rose 3.2 basis points to 4.619%, from 4.587% late on Tuesday.

The 30-year bond yield rose 2.5 basis points to 4.7863% from 4.76% late on Tuesday.

The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 2.3 basis points to 4.353%, from 4.33% late on Tuesday.

The dollar edged higher against a basket of world currencies on expectations that the greenback stands to benefit from the policies of the incoming Trump administration.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.09% to 108.20, with the euro up 0.04% at $1.0409.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.4% to 158.03.

Oil was essentially unchanged, giving up earlier strength due to China stimulus hopes and an industry report which showed a decline in U.S. inventories.

U.S. crude rose 0.01% to $70.11 a barrel and Brent rose to $73.61 per barrel, up 0.04% on the day.

Gold advanced on safe-haven demand as investors awaited further signals on the U.S. economy's health.

Spot gold rose 0.76% to $2,633.19 an ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,627.90 an ounce.

(Reporting by Stephen Culp; Editing by Richard Chang)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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