US STOCKS-Stocks rally after inflation data but close lower for the week

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 12/20/24 04:00 PM EST

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Nov. PCE at 2.4% on yearly basis, below estimated 2.5%

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Real estate leads S&P sectors higher

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U.S. House to vote Friday to avoid govt shutdown

(Updates to market close)

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK, Dec 20 (Reuters) -

U.S. stocks rallied to close out the trading week on Friday after two lackluster sessions as a cooler-than-expected inflation report and comments from Federal Reserve officials eased worries about the path of interest rates.

The latest inflation report in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index showed a 2.4% rise in November on an annual basis, just below the 2.5% estimate of economists polled by Reuters.

Consumer spending increased in November in another sign of economic resilience.

After the data, traders raised their slightly increased expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025, now expecting the first one in March and another by October. Before the data, traders saw a roughly 50% chance of a second rate cut by December 2025.

On Wednesday, the Fed announced its third interest-rate cut of the year but forecast in its summary of economic projections (SEP) just two 25-basis point cuts for 2025, down from its September view of four cuts, in a nod to the economy's continued health and sticky inflation.

The announcement sparked a sharp sell-off late on Wednesday, which equities were unable to bounce back from on Thursday. Even with Friday's rally, each of the three major U.S. indexes declined for the week.

Also providing support were

comments

from Fed officials, with some acknowledging they were starting to factor in fiscal policy uncertainty, such as tariffs, in their outlooks.

"It's kind of obvious what's going on - it's just this PCE plus dovish Fed commentary offset the market overreaction to the hawkish cut that everybody was expecting," said Jay Hatfield, CEO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors in New York.

"We've seen this like 10 times during this Fed cycle. The market just always overreacts on one side or the other."

According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 gained 64.00 points, or 1.12%, to end at 5,931.08 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 199.83 points, or 1.07%, to 19,579.63. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 511.91 points, or 1.21%, to 42,842.13.

The Dow and S&P recorded their biggest daily percentage gains since Nov. 6.

The Nasdaq snapped a four-week streak of gains, with the S&P 500 suffering its biggest weekly percentage decline in six weeks. The Dow saw its third consecutive weekly fall.

Each of the 11 major S&P sectors advanced in the broad-based rally, led by a gain of more than 2% in real estate and buoyed

by a drop

in Treasury yields.

Small-cap stocks as measured by the Russell 2000, which are also seen as likely to benefit from lower interest rates, rallied more than 1%.

Friday's session also marks the simultaneous expiry of quarterly derivatives contracts tied to stocks, index options and futures, also known as "triple witching," which could exacerbate volatility.

Markets were also monitoring the U.S. Congress as it scrambled to avert a partial government shutdown before a midnight deadline. Republican leaders in the U.S. House of Representatives said they would vote on Friday to keep the federal government operating.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Additional reporting by Medha Singh and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru; Editing by Richard Chang and Aurora Ellis)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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