Global central banks urge caution before Trump arrival

By Dan Burns and Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The imminent arrival of Donald Trump in the White House was already shaping global economic policy-making this week as the U.S. Federal Reserve flagged fewer rate cuts and other leading central banks signalled caution over their rate paths.

The Fed cut rates as expected on Wednesday but accompanied the move with a message that the incoming Trump administration gave cause for caution - a sentiment echoed by its counterparts in London, Tokyo, Frankfurt and elsewhere.

As Fed officials dialed back projections for future easing in the face of stubborn inflation, Chair Jerome Powell said some in the bank were trying to judge how Trump's planned tariffs, lower taxes and immigration curbs might affect policy.

"Some people did take a very preliminary step and start to incorporate highly conditional estimates of economic effects of policies into their forecasts at this meeting," Powell said of higher estimates for both growth and inflation in 2025.

Powell's repeated urging of caution around further rate cuts triggered a slide in stock prices. Just a single Fed rate cut is now priced in for 2025.

As expected, the Bank of England kept its main interest rate unchanged at 4.75% on Thursday and said it needed to stick to its existing gradual approach to cutting rates.

"With the heightened uncertainty in the economy we can't commit to when or by how much we will cut rates in the coming year," BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said.

Earlier in Asia, the Bank of Japan kept ultra-low interest rates as the threat of Trump's policies cast a shadow over the export-reliant economy.

"There's uncertainty over the policies of the incoming U.S. administration, so we need to scrutinise the impact more carefully," BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told a press conference, adding that Trump trade and fiscal policies would have a huge impact on the global economy and financial markets.

A Reuters survey of Japanese businesses published last week showed nearly three-quarters expect Trump to have a negative effect on their operating environment.

Norway's central bank held its policy interest rate unchanged at a 16-year high of 4.50% and highlighted the risk of a trade war between the United States and China.

"Higher tariffs will likely dampen global growth, but the implications for price prospects in Norway are uncertain," the bank said.

Sweden's central bank cut its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 2.50% as expected, but said it now saw reasons to be more cautious about cutting rates in early 2025.

In central Europe, the Czech National Bank paused its year-long rate-cutting campaign as expected, with lingering inflation pressures, especially for services, keeping it cautious.

UPHEAVAL

The U.S. economy was thrown into further uncertainty after Trump pressured fellow Republicans in Congress to reject a bill to keep the government funded past the deadline of midnight on Friday and demanded lawmakers raise the nation's debt ceiling.

In the past week, the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada had already lowered interest rates. Both are seen easing further in 2025 amid weakening outlooks.

While ECB President Christine Lagarde was vague about further rate cuts, she went out of her way to emphasize downside risks to growth, including from prospective trade tensions with the United States under Trump.

Although Trump may have been just at the periphery of officials' thinking at the Fed, he was a central focus in Ottawa when Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland quit after clashing with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on how to handle possible U.S. tariffs under the next U.S. administration.

Meanwhile, crypto market enthusiasm for Trump's notion of establishing a strategic reserve of bitcoin was dealt a setback when Powell said that the Fed had no legal authority to hold it and no plan to seek a change in the law so that it could.

The remark contributed to a broad slide in crypto-related assets, including a 5% drop in bitcoin itself, its largest decline in more than three months.