GLOBAL MARKETS-Wall Street stocks advance, dollar dips amid Fed outlook, political turmoil in South Korea, France

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 12/04/24 02:55 PM EST

(Updates to afternoon U.S. trading, Powell remarks, French vote)

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U.S. stocks rise on strong tech earnings

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Dollar ticks down, euro steady despite political turmoil in France

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Won near 2-year low amid South Korean political upheaval

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Treasury yields fall

By Lawrence Delevingne and Tom Wilson

BOSTON/LONDON, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Global shares were mixed and the euro was steady on Wednesday as markets digested political turmoil in South Korea, where martial law was imposed then lifted hours later, and in France, where a no-confidence vote toppled the government. Wall Street's major stock indices gained, with traders appearing more focused on the outlook for lower domestic interest rates and strong third-quarter results from the likes of enterprise cloud company Salesforce (CRM) and chipmaker Marvell Technology. UnitedHealth (UNH) shares gained 0.6% even as Brian Thompson, the CEO of its insurance unit, was fatally shot on Wednesday morning in New York City, several media outlets reported, citing police officials. The S&P 500 gained 0.4% to 6,073 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped around 1% to 19,680 -- both record highs -- while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.44%, to 44,900.

U.S. Treasury yields fell after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday the recent performance of the economy will allow the U.S. central bank to be more judicious with the future path of interest rate cuts. Given better-than-expected growth relative to expectations earlier this year, "we can afford to be a little more cautious as we try to find neutral" with rate policy, Powell said. In South Korea, Asia's fourth-largest economy, lawmakers called on President Yoon Suk Yeol to resign or face impeachment after he declared martial law late on Tuesday, only to reverse the move hours later.

The crisis left South Korea's benchmark KOSPI index down 1.4%, taking its year-to-date losses to over 7% and making it the worst performing major stock market in Asia this year.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan , which counts Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) as one of its top constituents, fell 0.15%. Most Asian markets aside from South Korea rose. The won currency, buoyed by suspected central bank intervention, steadied but remained close to the two-year low against the dollar that it hit late on Tuesday. South Korea's finance ministry said it was prepared to deploy unlimited liquidity into financial markets. Reports said the financial regulator was ready to deploy 10 trillion won ($7.1 billion) in a stock market stabilisation fund.

"Martial law itself has been lifted, but this incident creates more uncertainty in the political landscape and the economy," said ING senior economist Min Joo Kang. Meanwhile, in Europe, stocks gained about 0.4% and the euro traded near a two-year low ahead of the no-confidence vote in France. French lawmakers later voted to oust the fragile coalition of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, deepening the political crisis in the euro zone's second-largest economy. Barnier's government is France's first to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in more than 60 years, at a time when the country is struggling to tame a massive budget deficit. The single currency, last at $1.0518, up 0.1% on the day, has fallen 5% over the last three months, when investors began bracing for tariff-heavy policies from the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump.

US POLICY PATH

Away from political turmoil, investors are hoping for more clues on the policy path the Fed will likely take next year, with a much-anticipated November employment report due on Friday. U.S. job openings increased solidly in October while layoffs dropped by the most in 1-1/2 years, data showed on Tuesday, suggesting the labour market is slowing, even as another survey showed employers were hesitant to hire more workers. U.S. economic activity also expanded slightly in most regions since early October, with employment growth "subdued" and inflation rising at a modest pace and businesses expressing optimism about the future, the Fed said on Wednesday in a summary of surveys and interviews from across the country known collectively as the "Beige Book." The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 3.3 basis points to 4.188%, from 4.221% late on Tuesday. St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said he expects the Fed will be able to continue to cut interest rates, but warned that the pace of future actions has grown less clear. The BlackRock Investment Institute (BII) said on Wednesday in its outlook note for 2025 that it sees persistent U.S. inflationary pressures from rising geopolitical fragmentation, big spending on AI and low-carbon transition. In debt markets, BII raised its weighting on short-term U.S. Treasuries to "neutral" from "underweight", saying market pricing now roughly matches its expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve next year. "We think it will cut further in 2025, and growth will cool a little, but with inflation still above target the Fed won't have room to cut much past 4%, leaving rates well above pre-pandemic levels," BII said in its outlook. Markets are now ascribing an about 75% chance of a 25 basis point cut this month, with 80 bps of cuts expected by the end of next year. In currencies, the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, ticked down 0.1% to 106.19.

"Our baseline view is that the USD will strengthen in 2025 but face an air pocket of weakness early in the year on continued Fed rate cuts and uncertainty over policy implementation," Standard Chartered currency strategists wrote in a note on Tuesday.

Oil futures

slipped on Wednesday as traders awaited an imminent OPEC+ decision on supply, while a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles last week lent some support to prices. U.S. crude fell 1.57% to $68.84 a barrel and Brent fell to $72.56 per barrel, down 1.44% on the day. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 0.65% to $96,693 and Ethereum rose 6.19% to $3,838 as Trump said he would nominate Paul Atkins to run the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Atkins is seen as a crypto industry-friendly pick.

(Reporting by Lawrence Delevingne in Boston, Tom Wilson in London and Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Alexander Smith, Christina Fincher, Jonathan Oatis and Alistair Bell)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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