TREASURIES-US Treasury yields climb as Fed's Musalem sees less clear pace of rate cuts
BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 12/04/24 09:48 AM EST*
Musalem warns of unclear rate cut pace, risks of too much easing
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Markets await Powell's remarks, focus on upcoming jobs data
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ADP employment slight below expectations
By Tatiana Bautzer and Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, Dec 4 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on Wednesday after St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said it could take another two years to get inflation to the central bank's target and said a patient monetary policy stance is appropriate.
"Too much policy easing carries risks", Musalem said, adding that he expects the U.S. central bank will be able to continue to cut interest rates but warned the pace of future actions has grown less clear.
U.S. Treasury yields accelerated gains after Musalem's comments.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose 4.8 basis points to 4.269%. The yield on the 30-year bond climbed 5 basis points to 4.443%.
"Yields have been volatile over the last sessions. This morning's Fed commentary seems to have pushed yields up a little bit. Markets will keep looking for Fed comments, especially from Powell later in the day," said Jim Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.
"That said, I thought the ADP data came in somewhat benign; the most important jobs data will come on Friday."
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, advanced 2.5 basis points to 4.196%. Treasury yields began to rise after the release of private payrolls data showing gains slightly below expectations in November.
The ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls rose by 146,000 jobs last month, compared with the 150,000 estimate of economists polled by Reuters and after advancing by a downwardly revised 184,000 in October.
The data is the latest in a string of reports on the labor market this week, culminating in Friday's key government payrolls report.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 7.1 basis points.
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said he believes both inflation and employment are heading in the right direction, but there are risks for both, and he won't prejudge the outcome with more data to come before the Fed's policy meeting this month.
Markets will be attentive to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at a conference later in the day, expected to be the last before the Dec. 17-18 meeting.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.418% after closing at 2.395% on Tuesday.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.326%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.3% a year for the next decade.
(Reporting by Tatiana Bautzer and Chuck Mikolajczak; editing by Jonathan Oatis)