PRECIOUS-Gold prices inch higher on Fed rate optimism with US data due

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 12/03/24 04:56 AM EST

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Fed likely to deliver 25bp rate cut in Dec -UBS

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US job openings data due at 1500 GMT

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Fed's Waller says inclined to cut rates in December

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Benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields near late Oct lows

(Recasts as of 0921 GMT)

By Daksh Grover

Dec 3 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, as recovering expectations of a U.S. rate cut in December weighed on the dollar and Treasury yields ahead of economic data that could offer further signals on the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,646.03 per ounce, as of 0921 GMT, after falling as much as 1% on Monday. U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $2,668.90.

"Several factors are influencing gold's price action, including expectations of a Fed rate cut in December, the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near its lowest level since October, and sustained safe-haven demand," said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades.

Markets are pricing in a 72% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Dec. 17-18 meeting, up from 66% before Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Monday signalled support for a cut this month, citing inflation still forecast to fall to 2%.

UBS said it expects the Fed to cut by 25 basis points in December, followed by another 100 bps of easing through 2025.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield ticked up but was hovering around a 1-month low, making non-yielding bullion more attractive. The dollar was down 0.3 %.

Investors will also be watching job openings data due at 1500 GMT, the ADP employment report on Wednesday, and Friday's payrolls report.

Gold, which does not pay any interest, historically performs well in low-interest rate environments and during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.

"I anticipate gold prices to trade within a relatively narrow range, with resistance at $2,650 and support at $2,620," Evangelista added.

In other metals, spot silver added 1.6% to $30.97 per ounce, platinum rose 0.9% to $955.35 and palladium was up 1.1% to $991.75.

(Reporting by Daksh Grover in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Swati Verma and Alexander Smith)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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