Japan's 2-year bond yield hits 16-year high on BOJ rate hike bets

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 12/02/24 01:03 AM EST

(Adds comments, updates yield levels)

TOKYO, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Japan's two-year government bond yield hit a 16-year high on Monday as comments from the Bank of Japan's governor drove bets for the central bank to hike interest rates as soon as this month.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the timing of the next interest rate hike was "approaching", as the economy was moving in line with the central bank's forecasts, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Saturday, leaving open the chance of a December rate increase.

The two-year JGB yield rose 3 basis points (bps) to 0.625%, its highest level since Oct. 2008.

"The yields rose on the comments from BOJ Governor Ueda because they have not changed much since then," said Miki Den, senior Japan rate strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

Overnight index swaps (OIS) indicated a 59.73% chance of the BOJ raising rates to 0.5% in December as of 0513 GMT, down from 63.63% earlier in the session.

Ueda, however, also said the BOJ wanted to scrutinise developments in the U.S. economy, as there was a "big question mark" on its outlook, such as the fallout from President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariff hikes, according to the Nikkei.

"Ueda probably does not know whether to raise rates yet. He may want to see the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting," said Den, adding that the BOJ is nervous about the market reaction to its decision.

The BOJ's surprise rate increase in July jolted the market, sending the Nikkei share average falling 12% in a single day on Aug. 5.

"Whether the Fed cuts rates or not, the BOJ wants to see how the market reacts to the Fed's decision," he said.

Swap rates imply a 63% chance of the Fed's rate cut by 25 basis points on Dec. 18. The BOJ is set to announce its decision on Dec. 19.

Japan's five-year yield rose 3 bps to 0.75%, before retreating to 0.745%.

The 20-year JGB yield rose 1.5 basis points to 1.865% and the 30-year JGB yield was flat at 2.280%. (Reporting by Junko Fujita; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Abinaya Vijayaraghavan)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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