GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks dip, dollar climbs after data, Powell comments

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 11/14/24 04:37 PM EST

*

US bond yields pare declines after Powell comments

*

US producer prices rise as expected

*

Initial jobless claims slightly below expectations

(Updates at 4:12 p.m. ET/2112 GMT)

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - A gauge of global stocks fell for a third straight session on Thursday while the dollar advanced after U.S. data and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pointed to a slower path of rate cuts from the central bank.

The Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 217,000 for the week, slightly below expectations for 223,000 by economists polled by Reuters, suggesting the weak October government payrolls report was an anomaly.

In the latest inflation reading, the producer price index for final demand rose 0.2% last month, matching expectations, after an upwardly revised 0.1% gain in September.

The data comes after Wednesday's consumer price index increased as expected in October amid higher costs for shelter such as rents.

In the 12 months through October, the PPI increased 2.4% after advancing 1.9% in September.

Powell said ongoing economic growth, a solid job market, and inflation that remains above the 2% target mean the U.S. central bank does not need to rush to lower interest rates and can deliberate carefully.

"The comments from Powell put more cold water on what used to be a very optimistic outlook on the path for rate cuts," said Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson Investors in Denver.

"However, we can't take for granted that inflation and labor are in balance so this is an encouraging message on the economy."

Stocks initially rallied in the wake of the U.S. presidential election. Each of Wall Street's major indexes closed at records on Monday, but have stalled in recent days as bond yields have moved to four-month highs. U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 207.33 points, or 0.47%, to 43,750.86, the S&P 500 fell 36.21 points, or 0.60%, to 5,949.17 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 123.07 points, or 0.64%, to 19,107.65.

Investors have gravitated toward assets expected to benefit from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies in his second term after he pledged to impose high tariffs on imports from key trading partners, lower taxes and loosen government regulations.

But bond yields and the dollar have also surged recently on concerns that while Trump's policies will spur growth, they may also rekindle inflation after a long battle against price pressures following the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, tariffs could lead to increased government borrowing, further ballooning the fiscal deficit and cause the Fed to alter its course of monetary policy easing.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe fell 4.50 points, or 0.53%, to 850.35 and was poised for a third straight daily decline after five consecutive sessions of gains.

European shares rebounded from three-month lows, led by energy and tech stocks after a round of largely positive corporate earnings. The STOXX 600 index closed up 1.08%.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.45% to 106.94, with the euro down 0.41% at $1.052. The greenback is on pace for its fifth straight session of gains.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.57% to 156.34. Sterling weakened 0.38% to $1.2658.

Expectations for more Fed rate cuts have been dialed back over the past few weeks, but have become more volatile recently. Expectations for a 25 basis point cut at the Fed's December meeting were at 58.7%, down from 82.5% in the prior session, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 0.2 basis points to 4.453%, erasing declines after Powell's comments.

Earlier in the day, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said the central bank has made considerable progress toward achieving its job and inflation goals, while stopping short of offering firm guidance over what that means for the near-term monetary policy outlook.

Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin said high union wage settlements and the possible tariff increases are among the uncertainties that could make Fed officials more cautious about thinking they have won their battle against high inflation.

U.S. crude settled up 0.39% to $68.70 a barrel and Brent rose to settle at $72.56 per barrel, up 0.39% on the day, in part due to dollar strength and as rising U.S. crude inventories added to concerns of oversupply.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak, additional reporting by Sin?ad Carew Editing by Alexandra Hudson and Marguerita Choy)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

fir_news_article