GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks dip, dollar edges higher after US labor market, inflation data

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 11/14/24 11:47 AM EST

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US bond yields slip

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US producer prices rise as expected

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Initial jobless claims slightly below expectations

(Updates prices at 10:47 am ET)

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - A gauge of global stocks was lower for a third straight session on Thursday, after U.S. economic data indicated the labor market remains solid while progress on tamping down inflation may be waning.

The Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 217,000 for the week, slightly below expectations of economists polled by Reuters calling for 223,000 claims, suggesting the weak October government payrolls report was an anomaly.

In the latest reading on inflation, the producer price index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.2% last month, matching expectations, after an upwardly revised 0.1% gain in September.

The data comes after Wednesday's consumer price index (CPI) increased as expected in October amid higher costs for shelter such as rents.

In the 12 months through October, the PPI increased 2.4% after advancing 1.9% in September.

Stocks initially rallied in the wake of the U.S. presidential election but have stalled in recent days.

On Wall Street, U.S. stocks were little changed after the data as investors looked towards comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the day.

"When the election occurred, you had this market rally, which was financially based, basically, a Trump administration helps investors," said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York.

"But since then, you've had a flattening of the yield curve, on concern that a lot of the Trump policies are inflationary."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 6.22 points, or 0.01%, to 43,964.41, the S&P 500 fell 1.47 points, or 0.02%, to 5,983.91 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 11.95 points, or 0.06%, to 19,218.77.

Investors have gravitated toward assets expected to benefit from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies in his second term as U.S. president, after he pledged to impose high tariffs on imports from key trading partners, lower taxes and loosen government regulations.

But bond yields and the dollar have also surged recently on concerns that while Trump's policies will spur growth, they also could rekindle inflation after a long battle against price pressures following the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, tariffs could lead to increased government borrowing, further ballooning the fiscal deficit and cause the Fed to alter its course of monetary policy easing.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe fell 0.47 points, or 0.05%, to 854.38, on track for a third straight daily decline after five consecutive sessions of gains.

European shares rebounded from three-month lows, led by energy and tech stocks after a round of largely positive corporate earnings. The STOXX 600 index rose 0.96%.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.04% to 106.50, with the euro up 0.07% at $1.057. The greenback is on pace for its fifth straight session of gains.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.33% to 155.97. Sterling was unchanged $1.2703.

Expectations for more Fed rate cuts have been dialed back over the past few weeks, but have become more volatile recently. Expectations for a 25 bps cut at the Fed's December meeting were at 75.7%, down from 82.5% in the prior session but above the 66.6% seen a week ago, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 2.6 basis points to 4.424% after earlier hitting 4.483%, its highest since July 1.

Federal Reserve governor Adriana Kugler said the central bank has made considerable progress in working to achieve its job and inflation goals, while stopping short of offering firm guidance over what that means for the near-term monetary policy outlook.

Richmond Federal Reserve president Tom Barkin said high union wage settlements and the possibility of coming tariff increases are among the uncertainties that could make U.S. Federal Reserve officials more cautious about thinking they have won their battle against high inflation.

Republicans on Wednesday clinched a majority in the House of Representatives and with it full control of Congress, which would give Trump power to advance his agenda of tax cuts for businesses, workers and retirees.

U.S. crude rose 0.7% to $68.90 a barrel and Brent rose to $72.76 per barrel, up 0.66% on the day.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak Editing by Alexandra Hudson)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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