Euro area bonds track U.S. yields higher

BY Reuters | TREASURY | 11/14/24 03:13 AM EST

Nov 14 (Reuters) - European government bonds yields edged up on Thursday, tracking U.S. Treasuries, as investors geared up for higher inflation over the longer term under a new Trump administration.

Benchmark 10-year yields hit a four-and-a-half-month high at 4.483% as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's promises for cutting taxes, raising import tariffs and immigration are seen as widening budget deficits and putting upward pressure on inflation.

The euro zone counterpart, German 10-year bond yield , rose 2 basis point to 2.41%, while Italy's 10-year yield, the benchmark for the euro zone periphery, ticked up 1 bp to 3.64%.

"With little euro zone macro data to work with and Trump-related risks moving to the background for now, we expect the correlation with U.S. rates to remain strong," said Benjamin Schroeder, senior rates strategist at ING.

The threat of U.S. tariffs under the new Trump administration is adding to worries about a weak economic recovery in the euro area, bolstering the case for more rate cuts by the European Central Bank. A ZEW Institute survey this week indicated Trump's election victory and the collapse of the German government sapped investor morale in November.

Traders are currently fully pricing a quarter-point rate cut by the ECB in December, with about a 20% chance of a 50 bps reduction.

Germany's two-year bond yield, which is more sensitive to ECB rate expectations, was little changed at 2.153% after hitting a near three-week low of 2.097% on Tuesday.

After data showing a rise in U.S. consumer prices in October on Wednesday raised bets on a December U.S. interest rate cut, investors will look to producer prices data, another inflation gauge, as well as weekly jobless claims at 1330 GMT.

Investors will also eye euro zone third-quarter GDP at 1000 GMT. (Reporting by Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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