TREASURIES-Ten-year yield hits 4-month high after sticky inflation

BY Reuters | TREASURY | 11/13/24 10:50 PM EST

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10-year yield +3bp to 4.48%

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'Red sweep' and inflation may slow rate cuts, analyst says

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Market prices 83% chance of Dec. rate cut

SINGAPORE, Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. bonds fell on Thursday pushing 10-year yields to their highest since July as investors bracing for the incoming Donald Trump administration and sticky inflation demanded higher returns.

Benchmark 10-year yields rose a little more than three basis points to touch 4.483%, a four-and-a-half-month high. Two-year yields rose 3.5 bps to 4.319%.

Yields rise when bond prices fall.

Bond prices have been falling for months as a strong U.S. labour market and then the election of Donald Trump as President and Republicans into majorities in Congress have driven expectations of deficits and a stickier inflationary outlook.

On Wednesday data showed U.S. consumer prices rose in October. That was expected but still unsettling for markets that have priced in 75 basis points in interest rate cuts between now and the end of 2025, especially as Trump's promises for cutting taxes and immigration are seen as widening budget deficits and putting upward pressure on inflation.

"Normally to me that expected CPI print would lock in a 25 point cut in December, but things have changed dramatically with Trump's election and the 'red sweep,'" said ATFX Global market analyst Nick Twidale.

"Although any policy implementation impact won't be seen in the data until later in 2025 I think the Fed will be more hesitant in the pace of rate cuts in the next couple of quarters."

Markets have priced about an 83% chance of a 25 bp U.S. rate cut next month, though Fed funds futures fell slightly in Asia and Fed officials sounded wary on inflation risks.

"Inflation isn't going anywhere fast," said ING economist Rob Carnell. "4.5% is not a stupid number for the 10-year and potentially 5% should be considered a possibility."

Thirty-year yields rose 1.4 bps to 4.651%. (Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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