Net shorts in two-, five-year US Treasury futures hit new record highs

BY Reuters | TREASURY | 11/08/24 04:13 PM EST
       NEW YORK, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Speculators' net bearish
bets on U.S. two- and five-year Treasury note futures hit new
record highs in the week ending Nov. 5, according to Commodity
Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday.
    Short positions on two-year Treasury futures rose to
1,486,359 contracts, according to the CFTC's
latest Commitments of Traders data, up from 1,479,361 contracts
a week earlier. Net short bets on five-year note futures grew to
1,767,409 contracts from 1,680,471 the prior week.
    The bearish bets piled up ahead of Tuesday's U.S.
presidential election, in which Republican Donald Trump defeated
Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
    In the weeks heading into the election, Trump's chances of
regaining the White House had increased in online betting
markets, spurring bearish bets in Treasuries as investors expect
his policies to accelerate economic growth, as well as inflation
and a widening of U.S. budget deficits.
    Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, surged this
week after Trump's victory, with benchmark 10-year yields
hitting an over four-month high of 4.479% on Wednesday. Two-year
yields rose to an intraday high of 4.312% on Wednesday, their
highest since the end of July.
    Net bearish bets for longer-dated contracts, however, were
trimmed in the latest week, with net short bets on the benchmark
10-year note futures falling to 818,270 contracts
from 901,183, CFTC data showed on Friday.
    Below is a table of the speculative positions in Treasury
futures on the Chicago Board of Trade in the latest week:

    U.S. 2-year T-notes (Contracts of $200,000)
        05 Nov 2024 week  Prior week
 Long   516,573           545,677
 Short  2,002,932         2,025,038
 Net    -1,486,359        -1,479,361

U.S. 5-year T-notes (Contracts of $100,000)
         05 Nov 2024      Prior week
        week
 Long   464,380           458,688
 Short  2,231,789         2,139,159
 Net    -1,767,409        -1,680,471

U.S. 10-year T-notes (Contracts of $100,000)
        05 Nov 2024 week  Prior week
 Long   451,405           429,078
 Short  1,269,675         1,330,261
 Net    -818,270          -901,183

U.S. T-bonds (Contracts of $100,000)
        05 Nov 2024 week  Prior week
 Long   427,232           417,193
 Short  464,983           472,010
 Net    -37,751           -54,817

U.S. Long T-bonds (Contracts of $100,000)
        05 Nov 2024 week  Prior week
 Long   161,812           160,892
 Short  426,220           470,926
 Net    -264,408          -310,034

Fed funds (Contracts of $1,000,000)
        05 Nov 2024 week  Prior week
 Long   175,995           469,542
 Short  152,095           315,837
 Net    23,900            153,705


 (Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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